Geoeconomic Fragmentation

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Advanced economies are expected to slow from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024 as policy tightening starts to bite. 

The baseline forecast is for global growth to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent.

Given increasing concerns about geoeconomic fragmentation, part of the report assesses how disruptions to global trade in commodities can affect commodity prices, economic activity, and the green energy transition.  The report does not factor in the recent Israel-Hamas war – the latest Gaza conflict.

Not Many Are Left Unscathed From Global Supply Chain Snags, Especially Global Small Businesses

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With much of the world’s supply chain still tied in knots due to lingering effects from the global pandemic, many small business owners are finding they can’t buy the products and supplies they need, period. For smaller retailers in particular, many of which rely on the holiday season for the bulk of their sales, months of worry could result in a bleak November and December.

According to the U.S. Census, last month 45 percent of all small businesses reported some level of supplier delays, a steady increase from just under 40 percent of what they had reported earlier this summer. Such disruptions are widespread, including almost two-thirds of manufacturers and more than half of companies in the food service and hospitality sectors. 

Not many are left unscathed from global supply chain snags, especially global small businesses.