China's Trade Surplus

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According to Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy in the Dyson School at Cornell University and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution:

"China’s trade surplus – the amount by which its exports exceed its imports – hit a staggering $1.19 trillion in 2025, according to official numbers released on Wednesday (1/14/26). The figure shows just how much China is an exporting powerhouse but is also a sign of its economic weakness and of how its practices pose a greater danger to free trade than even President Trump’s tariffs."

Read the entire article at The New York Times (gifted):  Forget Trump’s Tariffs. The Real Danger Lies in China’s Trade Surplus.

Even With China's Currency Pressure, Export Growth Is Likely to Remain Strong

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A stronger global economy in 2021 would support demand for Chinese goods. If that continues to widen China’s trade surplus the yuan would hold its gains or even appreciate, “and inflation would be passed on to the rest of the world,” according to analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “The inflationary rebound in the next couple of years is likely to be sizeable.”

Even with the currency pressure, export growth is likely to remain strong alongside a vaccine rollout that should help to strengthen the world economy.

Read more about how China factories go into overdrive but exporters are not happy.